There are two times to overthink things in fantasy sports. One is the draft and the other is the fantasy playoffs.
And if you do too much during the first, you won't have to worry about the second.
Fantasy sports is so much about luck. It's about having the right combination in each week get the win. Last year the team in one of my leagues that had Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson missed the playoffs. His average points against was the highest in the league. Guys just had better weeks against him despite him having a pretty high scoring team.
So my first piece of advice is one I give every year and will continue to do so: start your studs. Sure there are cases where your studs should see the bench (see Andre Johnson) but by and large, you need to stick with the guys that brought you there.
So from here on out, we'll be looking at matchups that bode well for you down the stretch.
Glove or not, Matthew Stafford stands to have a big game this weekend against the hapless Vikings. Sure the Vikes have a vicious pass rush led by Jared Allen, but they've also yielded the most fantasy points to quarterbacks of any team, by a lot. Stafford is a must start if you have him this week.
Another guy to think about: Rex Grossman. Now I'm not suggesting benching a guy like Aaron Rodgers for him, but Rex Grossman stands to score some big points this weekend with New England on the schedule, currently yielding the fourth most points to fantasy quarterbacks.
I don't like Findlay High School grad Ben Roethlisberger tonight. The Browns have been inept at a lot of things this season. One thing they've done well with is stopping quarterbacks from scoring many fantasy points, as in the second least amount. So if you have a comparable option, I'd go that direction.
Ryan Mathews has just been a beast the last two weeks and expect that to continue this weekend against the Bills, who are not only imploding, but giving up the fourth most fantasy points to running backs right now. So while he's only getting about two-thirds of the touches, he's capitalizing on the work he's getting, rushing for 249 yards in just the last two weeks.
Ryan Grant could be a sneaky flex play or even Brandon Saine. The two stand to benefit with James Starks injured and Grant getting the start. Saine has been praised by his teammates of late and could make it worthy of a flex play in deep leagues against a Raiders defense that's yielding the fifth most points to fantasy running backs.
While Beanie Wells has been running better of late, he's someone to keep on the bench this weekend against an electric 49ers defense. While San Francisco is missing its star linebacker in Patrick Willis, that shouldn't be a reason to expect the No. 1 defense against fantasy running backs to be that much less effective.
Santana Moss stands to benefit as well from that putrid Pats defense that has given up the most points to fantasy receivers. The ageless one had 19 targets and nine catches in the last two weeks and it's not inconceivable to think he couldn't match that production in just one week.
In deeper leagus, Darrius Heyward-Bey could be a nice pickup and flex start this weekend against the Packers. With Woodson hurt and the Packers expected to be up in this game, the Raiders should be throwing. Denarius Moore has been out the last two weeks and Heyward-Bey has had 18 targets and eight catches for Carson Palmer, who has finally found some consistency. Oh, and the Packers have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Like the quarterbacks, the Browns have been the toughest for wide receivers to score on this year. So keep your Steelers wideouts on the sidelines for tonight's game.
Oh and one more thing: start your studs.
Aaron Korte is the A-T's fantasy sports writer. Contact him at akorte(at)advertiser-tribune.com.