College sports will survive in the fall — or will they?

College sports will survive in the fall — or will they?The anticipation for normalcy in the world of intercollegiate sport this fall is being met with extreme caution by sport practitioners and administrators in higher education. It will be difficult to predict if any team will experience a season unscathed from the wrath of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The "new" normal in college sports is anything but normal given the unpredictability of how pre-crisis intervention plans or reactionary measures to minimize a concentrated COVID-19 outbreak will impact competition. The past few months have taught athletes, coaches, fans, media specialists and administrators that mandates from municipal and state government agencies and policies levied at the institutional, conference, and national level can be enacted or changed at any time to deal with the consequences of an infectious disease disrupting the world of sport, business, politics, and public health.Amidst voluntary athletic workouts just recently permitted across campuses, the rage of the coronavirus has thrown a monkey wrench into normal summer activities. As of this week, two NCAA division III universities already have announced a decision to not compete in any fall sports. Head football coaches from Penn State and Wake Forest have decided to self-isolate from their family for the entire upcoming season. The Patriot League has legislated restrictions from air travel and overnight stays in the fall regular season for member institutions. Grand Canyon quarantined its entire basketball team a few weeks ago. Athletic facilities have been shut down almost as quickly as they opened this month and scores of athletes around the country have been quarantined because of a fever or positive COVID-19 test, often while feeling asymptomatic. As a condition to being permitted to return to campus for workouts, the Ohio State University and other institutions are requiring athletes to sign a health waiver specifying risks related to COVID-19. UNLV, Clemson, Houston, Boise State and Kansas State are among the Division I universities that suspended workouts after athletes tested positive for coronavirus. Clemson has had 47 positive cases among athletes this summer and LSU has reported at least 30 cases, so far.At least most college programs are anticipating some type of return to play, whether or not there will be fans in the stands, last minute cancellations, a reduction in the number of contests, star athletes or coaches left behind due to a fever, or a season shut down completely before the halfway point. Since March 11 and including the equestrian and swim and dive programs at Tiffin University, more than 200 varsity sport teams have been eliminated from athletic departments across the nation, making 2020 on pace for a record year of cancellations. Bowling Green State University (baseball), Brown University (track and field | cross country), and Alabama-Huntsville (men's ice hockey) are the only three institutions that reinstated a recently cancelled program. BGSU alumni, which includes former MLB pitcher Oral Hershiser and legendary ice skater Scott Hamilton, raised over $1.5 million in three weeks to help resurrect its baseball program. Alabama-Huntsville alumni raised nearly $900,000 in a week of campaigning to reinstate the ice hockey program, but the team's head coach resigned a few days later.Fall football and men's basketball are the potential money makers for Division I universities, primarily due to lucrative media deals for big time programs. The University of Notre Dame and only 28 other NCAA athletic departments, all members of the Power Five conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12), actually generated a profit in 2018. The remaining 950 plus NCAA athletic departments operated in the red, including 100% of division II and III institutions. Most universities don't have a chance to make money — with or without fans in the stand. Remember, the MLB's minor league teams are not playing in 2020 because of the pandemic limiting or prohibiting fan attendance. Similar to most division I athletic programs, the primary revenue source for independent and minor league baseball teams is game day receipts from ticket sales, concessions and parking. Without spectators, there's likely not enough money to pay the lease or keep the lights on!In totality, college sports are a bleak business venture in its current state. A one-year net deficit of almost $8 billion was reported by the NCAA in its calculation of all income and expenses of the 1,000-plus member athletic departments in the United States. The situation begs the question of whether the financial crisis of the 2020 global pandemic will trigger an economic reform and a revolutionary new model of college athletics in America. There has been conjecture of designating the Power Five football and basketball programs as NFL and NBA farm teams where athletes are finally paid wages for their contributions. Olympic sports may become club sports with drastically reduced budgets and travel. The NCAA is likely to pare down its financial support of 90 annual championships. It is a ripe time to reengineer the way college athletics operate on a national level.Reform already is taking place on individual campuses. As higher education institutions are preparing for a year of transitions and changes, there is little doubt that Presidents and governing boards will further address the economic drain of supporting athletics. Some fear that "Olympic" or non-revenue sports will return to club status or will be eliminated altogether. The inherently positive values of competitive athletics will be an afterthought, much in the way valuable employees are furloughed or terminated in the face of an ugly crisis.The grim outlook of an unpredictable fall has been met with unwavering optimism by most universities. Nothing, however, should be a surprise in the wake of a wild disease which has about a 5% mortality rate in the U.S. and primarily infects individuals over 65 years of age.Hand sanitizers, masks, sanitation specialists, temperature taking, empty rows of seats, quarantine areas, and an abundance of warning posters are the new normal for college sports this fall, but truly, it's hard to predict what college sports will look like in a few short months.Stay tuned for more interesting sport stories from around the world, across the nation, throughout the state, and right here in Tiffin, Ohio!