From purple to red

In the 2024 presidential election, nearly triple the amount of people in Huron County cast their ballot for Donald Trump over Democratic challenger Kamala Harris. In Seneca County, just over 30 % preferred Harris, with an overwhelming 68 % choosing Trump. And in Erie County, Trump cruised, with 42 % choosing Harris vs. 56 % for Trump. What do all these places have in common, besides being in the heart of the coverage area of our newspaper group? In the recent past, they were counties of tight elections, where Democrats and Republicans battled neck and neck. In the case of Erie County, almost every election prior to 2016 saw Democratic presidential candidates prevailing. I'm not penning anything new on the "Trump effect." But it is real, and it was fascinating for me to comb through data of the past five presidential elections in our four "core" counties — Hancock, Erie, Seneca and Huron. First, the macro: As if we've landed on the surface of Mars, everything in Ohio has been shading red since Trump burst onto the scene ahead of the 2016 election. In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama received more than half of the state's vote, winning by 4.5% in 2008 and 3.5% in 2012. In 2016, Trump shocked the Buckeye State by beating Hillary Clinton by 8%, and that has only carried forward. He beat eventual winner Joe Biden by 8% in 2020 and followed that by winning by a whopping 11% over Harris this year. As many have noted, once a bellwether state, Ohio has dramatically shifted Republican, at least during this "MAGA" era. When zeroing in on our counties, Hancock County's steadiness is hard to deny. Republicans rule in the Findlay area, with the following Red vs. Blue percentage victories: 2008 (33%), 2012 (32.5), 2016 (40), 2020 (38) and 2024 (38.5). Trump's presence has only widened the margins. Huron County is so fascinating to me. The 2008 race between Obama and John McCain saw McCain winning by 3 %. Serving as a canary in a coal mine, in 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Obama by 8.5 %. Then, the results snowballed, with Trump winning by 36 % just four years later. In fact, Huron County has favored Trump the past two election cycles more than Hancock County, long considered one of the reddest counties in the state. It's clear the Republican messaging resonated in places in Norwalk and Tiffin, the county seat of Seneca County, which saw very similar patterns to Huron County. The 2008 race was close, with Obama losing by just 2.5% in Seneca, followed by a 7.5% Romney victory in 2008. Four years later, Trump won by 30.5%. Republican dominance rose to 37% in 2024. That two universities lie within Seneca County add extra intrigue to these results. When looking at Ohio politics, what has happened in Erie County is a perfect example of drastic developments. Democrats ruled in the Sandusky area forever, with Obama easily winning both times in Erie by double digits. Like many places, Trump seemingly flipped the middle class in Erie in 2016, winning by a shocking 9.5 % in this traditionally blue county. The margin of victory has only grown the past two elections. No force has disrupted politics in our lifetime like Donald Trump has. When he is term-limited in 2028, I can't wait to see how our local counties react. When drilling down to the local level, you can see in real time how trends and phenomena take place. Here is the data (in percentages): Erie County Republican Democrat 2024 56.3 42.2 2020 54.8 43.2 2016 51.9 42.4 2012 42.9 55.2 2008 42.1 56.0 Huron County Republican Democrat 2024 71.4 27.5 2020 70.0 28.4 2016 64.9 28.6 2012 52.9 44.5 2008 50.3 47.2 Hancock County 2024 68.5 30.1 2020 67.9 30.3 2016 66.7 26.5 2012 67.7 35.1 2008 60.5 37.4 Seneca County 2024 67.9 30.6 2020 66.1 32.0 2016 61.3 30.6 2012 52.2 44.8 2008 50.2 47.5 State of Ohio 2024 55.1 43.9 2020 53.2 45.2 2016 51.3 43.2 2012 47.6 50.6 2008 46.9 51.5 Jeremy Speer is the publisher of The Courier, Findlay, the Sandusky Register, The Advertiser-Tribune, Tiffin, the Norwalk Reflector and Review Times, Fostoria. He can be reached at jeremyspeer@thecourier.com.