Early forecast predicts mild to moderate harmful algal bloom

SANDUSKY — Scientists have issued an early forecast predicting a mild to moderate harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie this summer. Scientists the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offered the forecast in an email bulletin. Every year, the federal agency issues a series of email bulletins providing a forecast and then tracking the bloom when it appears in Lake Erie. The official season forecast will be issued on June 26. The administration's latest bulletin explains that the forecasting model used by scientists relies upon the amount of phosphorus, a key chemical feeding harmful algal blooms, discharged into the lake by the Maumee River. The measurements and forecasts come from the U.S. Geological Society, the National Weather Service and Heidelberg University's National Center for Water Quality Research. "With observations through May 6, we predict a potential bloom severity range of 2 to 4.5 (mild to moderate bloom conditions), similar to the 2023 (mild) or 2022 and 2024 (moderate) blooms," the bulletin states. "Through the spring, conditions have been relatively dry except for a large precipitation and associated river discharge event in early April and another moderate precipitation event this week (early May)," it read. "Near normal precipitation and river discharge are currently predicted for the remainder of the loading season (May to July)." The range in the forecast for the bloom's severity reflects the fact that the amount of actual rain that will fall in June and July isn't known yet, the bulletin says. Forecasts continue despite cuts The early forecast comes at a time of uncertainty for both the administration and for the H2Ohio program, Gov. Mike DeWine's initiative for water quality in Ohio, which focuses particularly on dealing with Lake Erie's harmful algal bloom. The Trump administration has imposed budget cuts in the administration, and the Ohio House has proposed cutting the H2Ohio program by about 40%. After news of the DOGE budget cuts imposed upon the administration broke, an administration spokeswoman promised that the algal bloom forecasting and tracking for Lake Erie will continue. "We plan to produce our operational (harmful algal blooms) forecasts and make experts available for interviews about those forecasts," Maureen O'Leary told the Register on March 4. The administration "remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely forecasts, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience." U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo, and U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Ann Arbor, wrote a letter to the administration, asking for more information about the administration's budget cuts. A Kaptur spokesman, Ben Kamens, said there's been no response to the letter. He said Kaptur remains concerned about the administration and plans to monitor the situation at the agency. Meanwhile, the Ohio House has produced a budget that slashes funding for H2Ohio. The final budget will be determined after action in the Ohio Senate, with likely further work in a House-Senate conference committee. DeWine asked for $270 million over two years, a figure that would have kept funding for H2Ohio at its current level. The Ohio House, however, proposes to spend $150 million over two years. The House budget would make substantial cuts at all three of the main agencies carrying out the H2Ohio program, which are the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, the Ohio Department of Agriculture and the Ohio EPA. DeWine has indicated he will attempt to restore his H2Ohio proposal, and state Rep. D.J. Swearingen, R-Huron, said he favors adding back spending for the program.