NHL free agency frenzy: Salary cap jump fuels an unpredictable market

NHL teams have a whole lot of money to spend in free agency with the salary cap getting the biggest increase in its existence, and a bunch of players will cash in when the clock strikes noon on Tuesday. The cap is jumping $7.5 million from $88 million to $95.5 million, with that number set to exceed $100 million a year from now. Already back-to-back Stanley Cup-champion Florida re-signed playoff MVP Sam Bennett, and 100-point scorer Mitch Marner also could be locked up long term before hitting the market. That sets the stage for an unpredictable free agent period, with a lack of franchise-changing talent available but plenty of competition around the league, from rivals challenging the Panthers' crown and teams trying to just make the playoffs to those looking to make the leap sometime in the coming years. "I think it'll be busy," San Jose general manager Mike Grier said. "You have some teams that are coming out of their rebuild. You got some teams that want to take the next step as far as playoffs-wise, stuff like that. And you have maybe a situation where it's not the strongest free agent class. So, I think you have to kind of combine all these things with the cap going up." Who's available? Marner would be the headliner, leaving Toronto for a change of scenery after nearly a decade of regular season success mixed with playoff futility. He's coming off setting career highs with 75 assists and 102 points but also has just 13 goals to show for 70 career postseason games, and the Vegas Golden Knights could acquire the 28-year-old's rights from the Maple Leafs and sign him before anyone else gets the chance. Beyond him, Mikael Granlund was the highest-producing player in 2024-25 with 66 points, and Nikolaj Ehlers averaged 0.91 game. Florida could re-sign Brad Marchand and/or Aaron Ekblad to aid in the three-peat bid, with one of them possibly departing, and Detroit GM Steve Yzerman still hopes to bring back Patrick Kane. Ehlers, fellow winger Brock Boeser and defensemen Vladislav Gavrikov and Ivan Provorov could be among the highest earners in a free agent class that was weakened by so many stars re-upping ahead of time. "Anybody can go look at the list of potential free agents and see there aren't that many and players that you would think will have an impact," Yzerman said Saturday. "There are very few this year, for whatever reason." Who's paying? Do not figure Tampa Bay, with all its core players under contract, will be involved. "I do expect us to be quiet," two-time Cup-winning Lightning GM Julien BriseBois said. "I want to manage expectations. I don't expect anything from us — certainly nothing major." Same for the Panthers, who have to fill out some spots but have already built a consistent winner around Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. Tons of teams in the Eastern Conference are trying to chase them down, while the West is wide open from Dallas and Colorado to two-time defending conference champion Edmonton looking to improve. Grier's Sharks, the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets have the most cap space available. Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell said he and his counterparts are well aware of the cap going up, joking that just about every agent he talks to brings it up. "There's more money in the market, obviously, this year with the cap going up like it is, and it's going to continue over the next multiple years the way the cap is structured right now," Waddell said. It looked like Utah would be a major factor, and then the Mammoth made their big splash trading for and signing young, high-scoring winger JJ Peterka from Buffalo. They're trying to make the playoffs in their second season in Salt Lake City without hurting the long-term future prospects of competing for a championship. "We do have to be smart about it," GM Bill Armstrong said. "You see those teams last year that they won the summer. They crushed it. They didn't win the winter." What's the landscape? Connor McDavid, the undisputed best hockey player on the planet, is eligible to sign an extension with the Oilers this summer. What he makes could set the bar for the rest of the league. Until that happens, it's anyone's guess what the prices will be at various roles and ages. "It feels like you call an agent, he tells you, 'This is where we're at,' and so, OK. That's the number," Washington GM Chris Patrick said with a chuckle. "I think we all have to maybe change our gauge on what a second-liner used to make in the old cap. Now it's going to be a different number." Revenues rising and pushing the cap to new heights is a brave, new world for the NHL after only marginal increases since the pandemic. The league and union agreed to extend the collective bargaining agreement, international play is back on a regular basis and labor peace expected through 2030 has everyone around the sport feeling good. Those in charge of spending to build rosters are trying hard to be careful and not get caught up in the free agent frenzy. "Every time the cap goes up, sometimes you get antsy because I really want the players, but you have to stay true to your process and knowing what value you attribute to and what cap number you attribute every player and stick to your way because a decision that was good today could hurt you down the road," New York Islanders GM Mathieu Darche said. "You have to be smart and diligent in the signings. But of course it will be exciting. Players are excited the cap is going up. Trust me, agents are excited right now. But you still have to be disciplined in what you do."