AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia's special election on redistricting

WASHINGTON (AP) — There aren't any candidates on the ballot in Virginia's statewide special election on Tuesday, but the contest could still decide control of the closely divided U.S. House this fall. Voters in the Commonwealth will consider a ballot measure that would amend Virginia's constitution to give the Democratic-majority General Assembly temporary power to redraw the state's congressional districts. It's the latest move in an escalating redistricting arms race that began in July 2025, when Texas Republican lawmakers redrew their state's congressional map to favor Republicans at President Donald Trump's urging. Democrats hold six of Virginia's 11 congressional seats, but if a plan passed by the legislature in February and signed by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger is enacted, the party could gain the upper hand in 10 districts, a net pickup of four seats. The new boundaries would be in place in time for November's midterm congressional elections, where just a handful of seats could determine which party controls the House for the last two years of Trump's final term. Under the proposal, state lawmakers would retain the power to redraw district boundaries until October 2030, when the authority would revert to the state's nonpartisan redistricting commission. Spanberger and former President Barack Obama are among the high-profile Democrats who have endorsed the referendum, saying it's a necessary response to Republican-initiated mid-decade redistricting in other states. But groups opposed to the measure have also prominently featured the two in campaign materials alongside their past quotes critical of gerrymandering. Former GOP Govs. Glenn Youngkin and George Allen oppose the measure. Groups supporting the proposed amendment have far outraised those opposing it, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Democrats won Virginia in the past five presidential elections, but voters tend to be less party-loyal in state elections, as the governorship has changed party hands six times over the last 33 years. If support for the measure falls mostly along party lines, the "Yes" side can expect overwhelming support in the state's traditional Democratic strongholds of Northern Virginia and the cities of Richmond and Norfolk, while the "No" side should see wide margins in the smaller, more rural counties that make up the bulk of the state geographically. Fairfax County, the state's most populous, votes heavily Democratic, but Republican candidates who can chip away at the Democratic advantage there can win statewide. In 2021, Republicans Youngkin and then-attorney general candidate Jason Miyares received about 35% of the vote in Fairfax and won their races. By comparison, Trump lost Virginia in all three of his presidential campaigns, and his best showing in Fairfax was about 31% in 2024. Republican Winsome Earle-Sears received about 26% of the vote in her unsuccessful 2025 gubernatorial bid. Other key jurisdictions to watch are Chesterfield and Stafford counties and the cities of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. Spanberger and Democratic presidential nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried all four areas in their statewide victories, but Youngkin swept the four in 2021. Majority "No" votes in any of these areas on election night could be an indicator of a very close race. The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing side to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts. On ballot questions, a group of 50 or more voters may request and pay for a recount if the vote margin is 1 percentage point or less. The government will pay for the recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percentage points or the recount changes the outcome. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied: When do polls close?Polls close at 7 p.m. ET. What's on the ballot?The proposed constitutional amendment is the only statewide contest on the ballot. It reads: "Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?" A "yes" vote would support allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of the midterms. A "no" vote would leave current boundaries unchanged until the next round of regularly scheduled redistricting after the 2030 census. Who gets to vote?Any voter registered in Virginia can cast a ballot. Eligible voters may register on Election Day. How many voters are there?There were 6,386,877 registered voters as of March 1. Virginia voters do not register by party. How many people actually vote?About 3.4 million votes were cast in the 2025 general election for Virginia governor, which was the last statewide election. This was about 54% of registered voters at the time. How much of the vote is cast early or absentee?About 43% of total votes cast in the 2025 general election for governor were cast early or by absentee ballot. As of Friday, nearly 1.2 million ballots had already been cast in Tuesday's election. That's about 80% of the total advance votes cast in the 2025 gubernatorial election. When are early and absentee votes released?Virginia counties and independent cities vary in terms of when they release results from early and absentee voting. Less than a third of jurisdictions release all or almost all of their early and absentee voting results in their first vote update of the night. Nearly half the jurisdictions release no early or absentee voting results in the first vote update. How long does vote-counting usually take?In the 2025 general election for Virginia governor, the AP first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 1:52 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted. Are we there yet?As of Tuesday, there will be 196 days until the 2026 midterm elections.